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Market inspector · tokyo · 2026-05-04
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 4?
μ blend24.67C200 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend0.97combined uncertainty
source spread±1.04Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour12:00 ±1.9hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend 24.666C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
32 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 32 snapshots; drift from 25.1C to 26.4C (+1.4C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤14Clowest temperature in tokyo on may 4 2026 14corbelow0.0%12.9%-12.9pp≤18Chighest temperature in tokyo on may 4 2026 18corbelow0.0%0.4%-0.4pp15Clowest temperature in tokyo on may 4 2026 15c0.0%10.0%-10.0pp16Clowest temperature in tokyo on may 4 2026 16c0.0%29.0%-29.0pp17Clowest temperature in tokyo on may 4 2026 17c0.0%36.0%-36.0pp18Clowest temperature in tokyo on may 4 2026 18c0.0%28.0%-28.0pp19Clowest temperature in tokyo on may 4 2026 19c0.0%20.0%-20.0pp19Chighest temperature in tokyo on may 4 2026 19c0.0%0.7%-0.7pp20Clowest temperature in tokyo on may 4 2026 20c0.0%11.0%-11.0pp20Chighest temperature in tokyo on may 4 2026 20c0.0%0.9%-0.9pp21Clowest temperature in tokyo on may 4 2026 21c0.3%2.9%-2.6pp21Chighest temperature in tokyo on may 4 2026 21c0.3%0.7%-0.4pp22Clowest temperature in tokyo on may 4 2026 22c4.0%1.2%+2.8pp22Chighest temperature in tokyo on may 4 2026 22c4.0%2.8%+1.2pp23Clowest temperature in tokyo on may 4 2026 23c20.3%1.1%+19.2pp23Chighest temperature in tokyo on may 4 2026 23c20.3%4.0%+16.3pp≥24Clowest temperature in tokyo on may 4 2026 24corhigher75.3%0.8%+74.5pp24Chighest temperature in tokyo on may 4 2026 24c38.7%29.0%+9.7pp25Chighest temperature in tokyo on may 4 2026 25c28.1%37.0%-8.9pp26Cyouhighest temperature in tokyo on may 4 2026 26c7.7%29.0%-21.3pp27Chighest temperature in tokyo on may 4 2026 27c0.8%13.6%-12.8pp≥28Chighest temperature in tokyo on may 4 2026 28corhigher0.0%4.7%-4.7pp