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Market inspector · tokyo · 2026-05-02
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on May 2?
μ blend24.85C104 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.17combined uncertainty
source spread±0.82Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour14:00 ±0.6hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend 24.85C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
93 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 93 snapshots; drift from 25.7C to 26.4C (+0.7C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤10Clowest temperature in tokyo on may 2 2026 10corbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp≤15Chighest temperature in tokyo on may 2 2026 15corbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp11Cyoulowest temperature in tokyo on may 2 2026 11c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp12Clowest temperature in tokyo on may 2 2026 12c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp13Clowest temperature in tokyo on may 2 2026 13c0.0%0.6%-0.6pp14Clowest temperature in tokyo on may 2 2026 14c0.0%99.7%-99.7pp15Clowest temperature in tokyo on may 2 2026 15c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp16Clowest temperature in tokyo on may 2 2026 16c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp16Chighest temperature in tokyo on may 2 2026 16c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp17Clowest temperature in tokyo on may 2 2026 17c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp17Chighest temperature in tokyo on may 2 2026 17c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp18Clowest temperature in tokyo on may 2 2026 18c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp18Chighest temperature in tokyo on may 2 2026 18c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp19Clowest temperature in tokyo on may 2 2026 19c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp19Chighest temperature in tokyo on may 2 2026 19c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp≥20Clowest temperature in tokyo on may 2 2026 20corhigher100.0%0.1%+99.9pp20Chighest temperature in tokyo on may 2 2026 20c0.1%0.1%-0.1pp21Chighest temperature in tokyo on may 2 2026 21c0.7%0.1%+0.6pp22Chighest temperature in tokyo on may 2 2026 22c4.9%0.1%+4.8pp23Chighest temperature in tokyo on may 2 2026 23c17.7%0.1%+17.6pp24Chighest temperature in tokyo on may 2 2026 24c31.7%0.1%+31.6pp≥25Chighest temperature in tokyo on may 2 2026 25corhigher44.9%——