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Market inspector · paris · 2026-05-01
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 4°C or below on May 1?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
98 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 98 snapshots; drift from 22.9C to 24.5C (+1.6C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤4Cyoulowest temperature in paris on may 1 2026 4corbelow—0.4%—≤20Chighest temperature in paris on may 1 2026 20corbelow—0.1%—5Clowest temperature in paris on may 1 2026 5c—0.4%—6Clowest temperature in paris on may 1 2026 6c—0.5%—7Clowest temperature in paris on may 1 2026 7c—0.5%—8Clowest temperature in paris on may 1 2026 8c—0.5%—9Clowest temperature in paris on may 1 2026 9c—0.2%—10Clowest temperature in paris on may 1 2026 10c—99.7%—11Clowest temperature in paris on may 1 2026 11c—0.1%—12Clowest temperature in paris on may 1 2026 12c—0.1%—13Clowest temperature in paris on may 1 2026 13c—0.1%—≥14Clowest temperature in paris on may 1 2026 14corhigher—0.1%—21Chighest temperature in paris on may 1 2026 21c—0.1%—22Chighest temperature in paris on may 1 2026 22c—0.3%—23Chighest temperature in paris on may 1 2026 23c—1.7%—24Chighest temperature in paris on may 1 2026 24c—18.0%—25Chighest temperature in paris on may 1 2026 25c—56.0%—26Chighest temperature in paris on may 1 2026 26c—27.0%—27Chighest temperature in paris on may 1 2026 27c—4.1%—28Chighest temperature in paris on may 1 2026 28c—1.8%—29Chighest temperature in paris on may 1 2026 29c—0.2%—≥30Chighest temperature in paris on may 1 2026 30corhigher—0.2%—