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OVERVIEW
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Market inspector · london · 2026-05-01
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on May 1?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
96 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 96 snapshots; drift from 20.8C to 22.8C (+2.1C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤3Clowest temperature in london on may 1 2026 3corbelow—0.4%—≤17Chighest temperature in london on may 1 2026 17corbelow—0.1%—4Clowest temperature in london on may 1 2026 4c—0.1%—5Clowest temperature in london on may 1 2026 5c—0.7%—6Clowest temperature in london on may 1 2026 6c—0.6%—7Clowest temperature in london on may 1 2026 7c—0.7%—8Clowest temperature in london on may 1 2026 8c—0.2%—9Cyoulowest temperature in london on may 1 2026 9c—0.7%—10Clowest temperature in london on may 1 2026 10c—99.6%—11Clowest temperature in london on may 1 2026 11c—0.1%—12Clowest temperature in london on may 1 2026 12c—0.1%—≥13Clowest temperature in london on may 1 2026 13corhigher—0.1%—18Chighest temperature in london on may 1 2026 18c—0.1%—19Chighest temperature in london on may 1 2026 19c—0.1%—20Chighest temperature in london on may 1 2026 20c—0.2%—21Chighest temperature in london on may 1 2026 21c—0.5%—22Chighest temperature in london on may 1 2026 22c—1.9%—23Chighest temperature in london on may 1 2026 23c—24.0%—24Chighest temperature in london on may 1 2026 24c—58.0%—25Chighest temperature in london on may 1 2026 25c—18.0%—26Chighest temperature in london on may 1 2026 26c—3.7%—≥27Chighest temperature in london on may 1 2026 27corhigher—0.7%—