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Market inspector · jeddah · 2026-05-02
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 32°C on May 2?
μ blend35.01C104 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.72combined uncertainty
source spread±1.41Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour15:00 ±0.6hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 35.014C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
95 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 95 snapshots; drift from 35.7C to 35.8C (+0.0C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤29Chighest temperature in jeddah on may 2 2026 29corbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp30Chighest temperature in jeddah on may 2 2026 30c0.8%0.1%+0.7pp31Chighest temperature in jeddah on may 2 2026 31c3.0%0.1%+2.9pp32Cyouhighest temperature in jeddah on may 2 2026 32c8.1%0.1%+8.0pp33Chighest temperature in jeddah on may 2 2026 33c15.7%0.1%+15.6pp34Chighest temperature in jeddah on may 2 2026 34c21.9%0.1%+21.8pp35Chighest temperature in jeddah on may 2 2026 35c22.0%0.1%+21.9pp36Chighest temperature in jeddah on may 2 2026 36c15.9%0.1%+15.8pp37Chighest temperature in jeddah on may 2 2026 37c8.3%89.0%-80.7pp38Chighest temperature in jeddah on may 2 2026 38c3.1%20.4%-17.3pp≥39Chighest temperature in jeddah on may 2 2026 39corhigher1.0%3.8%-2.8pp