00
OVERVIEW
· all generations · single screen · live01:04CEST
live
Market inspector · seattle · 2026-05-02
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 2?
μ blend70.15F112 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend3.12combined uncertainty
source spread±2.57Fdisagreement σ across means
peak hour16:00 ±0.6hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 70.148F. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
90 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 90 snapshots; drift from 70.0F to 72.1F (+2.1F).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤53Fhighest temperature in seattle on may 2 2026 53forbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp54Fhighest temperature in seattle on may 2 2026 54 55f0.0%0.1%-0.1pp56Fhighest temperature in seattle on may 2 2026 56 57f0.0%0.1%-0.1pp58Fhighest temperature in seattle on may 2 2026 58 59f0.0%0.1%-0.1pp60Fhighest temperature in seattle on may 2 2026 60 61f0.1%0.1%+0.0pp62Fhighest temperature in seattle on may 2 2026 62 63f0.7%0.1%+0.5pp64Fyouhighest temperature in seattle on may 2 2026 64 65f2.5%0.3%+2.2pp66Fhighest temperature in seattle on may 2 2026 66 67f6.5%0.4%+6.1pp68Fhighest temperature in seattle on may 2 2026 68 69f11.1%5.3%+5.8pp70Fhighest temperature in seattle on may 2 2026 70 71f12.6%18.0%-5.4pp≥72Fhighest temperature in seattle on may 2 2026 72forhigher27.7%79.0%-51.3pp