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Market inspector · madrid · 2026-04-27
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 27?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
86 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 86 snapshots; drift from 27.4C to 26.6C (-0.8C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤21Chighest temperature in madrid on april 27 2026 21corbelow—0.1%—22Chighest temperature in madrid on april 27 2026 22c—0.1%—23Chighest temperature in madrid on april 27 2026 23c—0.1%—24Chighest temperature in madrid on april 27 2026 24c—0.6%—25Chighest temperature in madrid on april 27 2026 25c—3.0%—26Chighest temperature in madrid on april 27 2026 26c—47.0%—27Chighest temperature in madrid on april 27 2026 27c—43.0%—28Cyouhighest temperature in madrid on april 27 2026 28c—12.0%—29Chighest temperature in madrid on april 27 2026 29c—1.3%—30Chighest temperature in madrid on april 27 2026 30c—0.5%—≥31Chighest temperature in madrid on april 27 2026 31corhigher—0.4%—