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Market inspector · hong-kong · 2026-04-25
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on April 25?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
16 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 16 snapshots; drift from 27.1C to 25.6C (-1.5C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤15Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 25 2026 15corbelow—0.1%—≤19Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 25 2026 19corbelow—0.1%—16Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 25 2026 16c—0.1%—17Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 25 2026 17c—0.1%—18Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 25 2026 18c—0.1%—19Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 25 2026 19c—0.5%—20Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 25 2026 20c—99.8%—20Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 25 2026 20c—0.1%—21Cyoulowest temperature in hong kong on april 25 2026 21c—0.4%—21Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 25 2026 21c—0.1%—22Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 25 2026 22c—2.0%—22Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 25 2026 22c—0.1%—23Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 25 2026 23c—0.4%—23Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 25 2026 23c—0.1%—24Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 25 2026 24c—0.3%—24Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 25 2026 24c—0.1%—≥25Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 25 2026 25corhigher—0.6%—25Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 25 2026 25c—0.2%—26Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 25 2026 26c—99.8%—27Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 25 2026 27c—0.2%—28Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 25 2026 28c—0.3%—≥29Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 25 2026 29corhigher—0.1%—