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Market inspector · manila · 2026-05-03
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on May 3?
μ blend34.62C296 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.03combined uncertainty
source spread±0.59Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour14:00 ±0.9hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 34.621C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
72 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 72 snapshots; drift from 34.7C to 34.6C (-0.1C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤29Chighest temperature in manila on may 3 2026 29corbelow0.0%0.3%-0.3pp30Chighest temperature in manila on may 3 2026 30c0.0%0.3%-0.3pp31Chighest temperature in manila on may 3 2026 31c0.5%0.4%+0.1pp32Chighest temperature in manila on may 3 2026 32c5.2%0.2%+5.0pp33Chighest temperature in manila on may 3 2026 33c21.5%0.3%+21.2pp34Chighest temperature in manila on may 3 2026 34c37.0%11.0%+26.0pp35Chighest temperature in manila on may 3 2026 35c26.6%30.0%-3.4pp36Cyouhighest temperature in manila on may 3 2026 36c8.0%50.0%-42.0pp37Chighest temperature in manila on may 3 2026 37c1.0%14.0%-13.0pp38Chighest temperature in manila on may 3 2026 38c0.1%2.0%-1.9pp≥39Chighest temperature in manila on may 3 2026 39corhigher0.0%0.7%-0.7pp