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Market inspector · beijing · 2026-04-27
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 27?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
85 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 85 snapshots; drift from 24.6C to 24.9C (+0.3C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤17Chighest temperature in beijing on april 27 2026 17corbelow—0.1%—18Chighest temperature in beijing on april 27 2026 18c—0.1%—19Chighest temperature in beijing on april 27 2026 19c—0.1%—20Chighest temperature in beijing on april 27 2026 20c—0.1%—21Chighest temperature in beijing on april 27 2026 21c—12.0%—22Cyouhighest temperature in beijing on april 27 2026 22c—0.1%—23Chighest temperature in beijing on april 27 2026 23c—0.1%—24Chighest temperature in beijing on april 27 2026 24c—0.1%—25Chighest temperature in beijing on april 27 2026 25c———26Chighest temperature in beijing on april 27 2026 26c—0.1%—≥27Chighest temperature in beijing on april 27 2026 27corhigher—0.1%—