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Market inspector · hong-kong · 2026-04-29
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 29?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
99 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 99 snapshots; drift from 28.2C to 29.4C (+1.2C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤19Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 29 2026 19corbelow—0.1%—≤14Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 29 2026 14corbelow—0.4%—15Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 29 2026 15c—0.1%—16Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 29 2026 16c—0.6%—17Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 29 2026 17c—1.0%—18Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 29 2026 18c—13.5%—19Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 29 2026 19c—16.4%—20Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 29 2026 20c—0.1%—20Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 29 2026 20c—31.0%—21Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 29 2026 21c—0.1%—21Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 29 2026 21c—49.0%—22Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 29 2026 22c—0.1%—22Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 29 2026 22c—40.0%—23Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 29 2026 23c—0.1%—23Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 29 2026 23c—0.1%—24Cyouhighest temperature in hong kong on april 29 2026 24c—0.1%—≥24Clowest temperature in hong kong on april 29 2026 24corhigher—0.1%—25Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 29 2026 25c—0.1%—26Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 29 2026 26c—0.2%—27Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 29 2026 27c—0.3%—28Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 29 2026 28c—99.9%—≥29Chighest temperature in hong kong on april 29 2026 29corhigher—0.3%—