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Market inspector · cape-town · 2026-05-01
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on May 1?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
93 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 93 snapshots; drift from 16.9C to 17.1C (+0.2C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤13Chighest temperature in cape town on may 1 2026 13corbelow—0.1%—14Chighest temperature in cape town on may 1 2026 14c—0.1%—15Chighest temperature in cape town on may 1 2026 15c—0.1%—16Chighest temperature in cape town on may 1 2026 16c—0.1%—17Chighest temperature in cape town on may 1 2026 17c—14.0%—18Chighest temperature in cape town on may 1 2026 18c—75.0%—19Chighest temperature in cape town on may 1 2026 19c—27.0%—20Cyouhighest temperature in cape town on may 1 2026 20c—10.2%—21Chighest temperature in cape town on may 1 2026 21c—1.0%—22Chighest temperature in cape town on may 1 2026 22c—0.9%—≥23Chighest temperature in cape town on may 1 2026 23corhigher—0.5%—