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Market inspector · shanghai · 2026-05-01
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on May 1?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
97 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 97 snapshots; drift from 22.4C to 22.1C (-0.3C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤19Chighest temperature in shanghai on may 1 2026 19corbelow—0.1%—≤7Clowest temperature in shanghai on may 1 2026 7corbelow—0.2%—8Clowest temperature in shanghai on may 1 2026 8c—0.3%—9Clowest temperature in shanghai on may 1 2026 9c—0.5%—10Clowest temperature in shanghai on may 1 2026 10c—99.9%—11Clowest temperature in shanghai on may 1 2026 11c—0.1%—12Clowest temperature in shanghai on may 1 2026 12c—0.1%—13Cyoulowest temperature in shanghai on may 1 2026 13c—0.1%—14Clowest temperature in shanghai on may 1 2026 14c—0.1%—15Clowest temperature in shanghai on may 1 2026 15c—0.1%—16Clowest temperature in shanghai on may 1 2026 16c—0.1%—≥17Clowest temperature in shanghai on may 1 2026 17corhigher—0.1%—20Chighest temperature in shanghai on may 1 2026 20c—0.1%—21Chighest temperature in shanghai on may 1 2026 21c—0.1%—22Chighest temperature in shanghai on may 1 2026 22c—0.1%—23Chighest temperature in shanghai on may 1 2026 23c—0.1%—24Chighest temperature in shanghai on may 1 2026 24c—0.1%—25Chighest temperature in shanghai on may 1 2026 25c———26Chighest temperature in shanghai on may 1 2026 26c—0.5%—27Chighest temperature in shanghai on may 1 2026 27c—0.1%—28Chighest temperature in shanghai on may 1 2026 28c—0.1%—≥29Chighest temperature in shanghai on may 1 2026 29corhigher—0.1%—