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Market inspector · jakarta · 2026-04-27
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C on April 27?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
85 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 85 snapshots; drift from 36.3C to 36.9C (+0.6C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤29Chighest temperature in jakarta on april 27 2026 29corbelow—0.1%—30Chighest temperature in jakarta on april 27 2026 30c—0.1%—31Chighest temperature in jakarta on april 27 2026 31c—0.1%—32Chighest temperature in jakarta on april 27 2026 32c—0.4%—33Chighest temperature in jakarta on april 27 2026 33c—9.0%—34Chighest temperature in jakarta on april 27 2026 34c—0.1%—35Chighest temperature in jakarta on april 27 2026 35c———36Cyouhighest temperature in jakarta on april 27 2026 36c—0.1%—37Chighest temperature in jakarta on april 27 2026 37c—0.1%—38Chighest temperature in jakarta on april 27 2026 38c—0.1%—≥39Chighest temperature in jakarta on april 27 2026 39corhigher—0.1%—