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Market inspector · austin · 2026-05-04
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 66°F or higher on May 4?
μ blend80.35F236 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.94combined uncertainty
source spread±3.51Fdisagreement σ across means
peak hour17:00 ±0.9hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 80.348F. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
29 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 29 snapshots; drift from 81.9F to 81.6F (-0.3F).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤47Fhighest temperature in austin on may 4 2026 47forbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp48Fhighest temperature in austin on may 4 2026 48 49f0.0%0.3%-0.3pp50Fhighest temperature in austin on may 4 2026 50 51f0.0%0.2%-0.2pp52Fhighest temperature in austin on may 4 2026 52 53f0.0%0.2%-0.2pp54Fhighest temperature in austin on may 4 2026 54 55f0.0%0.2%-0.2pp56Fhighest temperature in austin on may 4 2026 56 57f0.0%0.2%-0.2pp58Fhighest temperature in austin on may 4 2026 58 59f0.0%0.2%-0.2pp60Fhighest temperature in austin on may 4 2026 60 61f0.0%0.2%-0.2pp62Fhighest temperature in austin on may 4 2026 62 63f0.0%0.2%-0.2pp64Fhighest temperature in austin on may 4 2026 64 65f0.0%0.4%-0.4pp≥66Fyouhighest temperature in austin on may 4 2026 66forhigher100.0%99.6%+0.4pp