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OVERVIEW
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Market inspector · seattle · 2026-04-28
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 51°F or below on April 28?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownF. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
92 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 92 snapshots; drift from 56.5F to 57.3F (+0.7F).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤51Fyouhighest temperature in seattle on april 28 2026 51forbelow—0.2%—52Fhighest temperature in seattle on april 28 2026 52 53f—0.7%—54Fhighest temperature in seattle on april 28 2026 54 55f—16.0%—56Fhighest temperature in seattle on april 28 2026 56 57f—37.0%—58Fhighest temperature in seattle on april 28 2026 58 59f—42.0%—60Fhighest temperature in seattle on april 28 2026 60 61f—9.0%—62Fhighest temperature in seattle on april 28 2026 62 63f—1.0%—64Fhighest temperature in seattle on april 28 2026 64 65f—0.6%—66Fhighest temperature in seattle on april 28 2026 66 67f—0.5%—68Fhighest temperature in seattle on april 28 2026 68 69f—0.5%—≥70Fhighest temperature in seattle on april 28 2026 70forhigher—0.3%—