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Market inspector · san-francisco · 2026-04-27
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 50-51°F on April 27?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownF. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
86 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 86 snapshots; drift from 62.6F to 60.6F (-1.9F).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤49Fhighest temperature in san francisco on april 27 2026 49forbelow—0.1%—50Fyouhighest temperature in san francisco on april 27 2026 50 51f—0.1%—52Fhighest temperature in san francisco on april 27 2026 52 53f—0.1%—54Fhighest temperature in san francisco on april 27 2026 54 55f—0.1%—56Fhighest temperature in san francisco on april 27 2026 56 57f—1.0%—58Fhighest temperature in san francisco on april 27 2026 58 59f—5.0%—60Fhighest temperature in san francisco on april 27 2026 60 61f—34.0%—62Fhighest temperature in san francisco on april 27 2026 62 63f—53.0%—64Fhighest temperature in san francisco on april 27 2026 64 65f—15.0%—66Fhighest temperature in san francisco on april 27 2026 66 67f—1.9%—≥68Fhighest temperature in san francisco on april 27 2026 68forhigher—0.8%—