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Market inspector · denver · 2026-05-01
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 42-43°F on May 1?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownF. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
93 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 93 snapshots; drift from 50.5F to 55.5F (+5.0F).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤39Fhighest temperature in denver on may 1 2026 39forbelow—0.1%—40Fhighest temperature in denver on may 1 2026 40 41f—0.1%—42Fyouhighest temperature in denver on may 1 2026 42 43f—0.1%—44Fhighest temperature in denver on may 1 2026 44 45f—0.1%—46Fhighest temperature in denver on may 1 2026 46 47f—0.1%—48Fhighest temperature in denver on may 1 2026 48 49f—0.1%—50Fhighest temperature in denver on may 1 2026 50 51f—0.5%—52Fhighest temperature in denver on may 1 2026 52 53f—0.6%—54Fhighest temperature in denver on may 1 2026 54 55f—1.1%—56Fhighest temperature in denver on may 1 2026 56 57f—14.0%—≥58Fhighest temperature in denver on may 1 2026 58forhigher—90.0%—