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Market inspector · hong-kong · 2026-05-02
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 2?
μ blend26.43C78 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend0.48combined uncertainty
source spread±0.29Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour14:00 ±0.9hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend 26.427C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
95 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 95 snapshots; drift from 25.4C to 26.7C (+1.4C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤18Clowest temperature in hong kong on may 2 2026 18corbelow0.0%0.5%-0.5pp≤21Chighest temperature in hong kong on may 2 2026 21corbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp19Clowest temperature in hong kong on may 2 2026 19c0.0%0.2%-0.2pp20Clowest temperature in hong kong on may 2 2026 20c0.0%0.2%-0.2pp21Clowest temperature in hong kong on may 2 2026 21c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp22Clowest temperature in hong kong on may 2 2026 22c0.0%0.3%-0.3pp22Chighest temperature in hong kong on may 2 2026 22c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp23Clowest temperature in hong kong on may 2 2026 23c0.0%3.0%-3.0pp23Chighest temperature in hong kong on may 2 2026 23c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp24Clowest temperature in hong kong on may 2 2026 24c0.1%97.9%-97.8pp24Chighest temperature in hong kong on may 2 2026 24c0.1%0.1%+0.1pp25Clowest temperature in hong kong on may 2 2026 25c18.5%0.1%+18.4pp25Cyouhighest temperature in hong kong on may 2 2026 25c18.5%0.1%+18.4pp26Clowest temperature in hong kong on may 2 2026 26c69.7%0.2%+69.5pp26Chighest temperature in hong kong on may 2 2026 26c69.7%0.2%+69.5pp27Clowest temperature in hong kong on may 2 2026 27c11.6%0.2%+11.4pp27Chighest temperature in hong kong on may 2 2026 27c11.6%99.9%-88.3pp≥28Clowest temperature in hong kong on may 2 2026 28corhigher0.1%0.2%-0.1pp28Chighest temperature in hong kong on may 2 2026 28c0.1%0.3%-0.3pp29Chighest temperature in hong kong on may 2 2026 29c0.0%0.2%-0.2pp30Chighest temperature in hong kong on may 2 2026 30c0.0%0.2%-0.2pp≥31Chighest temperature in hong kong on may 2 2026 31corhigher0.0%0.1%-0.1pp