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Market inspector · lagos · 2026-05-03
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 30°C on May 3?
μ blend32.18C272 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.10combined uncertainty
source spread±1.02Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour13:00 ±2.9hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 32.184C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
70 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 70 snapshots; drift from 32.6C to 33.5C (+0.9C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤27Chighest temperature in lagos on may 3 2026 27corbelow0.0%3.8%-3.8pp28Chighest temperature in lagos on may 3 2026 28c0.2%2.4%-2.2pp29Chighest temperature in lagos on may 3 2026 29c2.2%3.9%-1.7pp30Cyouhighest temperature in lagos on may 3 2026 30c11.8%2.2%+9.6pp31Chighest temperature in lagos on may 3 2026 31c29.2%15.0%+14.2pp32Chighest temperature in lagos on may 3 2026 32c33.7%18.0%+15.7pp33Chighest temperature in lagos on may 3 2026 33c18.0%27.0%-9.0pp34Chighest temperature in lagos on may 3 2026 34c4.4%39.0%-34.6pp35Chighest temperature in lagos on may 3 2026 35c0.5%15.0%-14.5pp36Chighest temperature in lagos on may 3 2026 36c0.0%2.0%-2.0pp≥37Chighest temperature in lagos on may 3 2026 37corhigher0.0%1.4%-1.4pp