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Market inspector · lucknow · 2026-05-03
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on May 3?
μ blend34.94C286 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.80combined uncertainty
source spread±1.41Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour16:00 ±1.4hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 34.943C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
74 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 74 snapshots; drift from 37.5C to 35.7C (-1.8C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤34Chighest temperature in lucknow on may 3 2026 34corbelow30.0%42.0%-12.0pp35Chighest temperature in lucknow on may 3 2026 35c20.9%30.0%-9.1pp36Chighest temperature in lucknow on may 3 2026 36c15.2%20.0%-4.8pp37Chighest temperature in lucknow on may 3 2026 37c8.2%4.0%+4.2pp38Chighest temperature in lucknow on may 3 2026 38c3.3%1.2%+2.1pp39Chighest temperature in lucknow on may 3 2026 39c0.9%1.0%-0.1pp40Cyouhighest temperature in lucknow on may 3 2026 40c0.2%0.6%-0.4pp41Chighest temperature in lucknow on may 3 2026 41c0.0%0.2%-0.2pp42Chighest temperature in lucknow on may 3 2026 42c0.0%0.2%-0.2pp43Chighest temperature in lucknow on may 3 2026 43c0.0%0.2%-0.2pp≥44Chighest temperature in lucknow on may 3 2026 44corhigher0.0%0.4%-0.4pp