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OVERVIEW
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Market inspector · hong-kong · 2026-05-01
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on May 1?
μ blend—0 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend—combined uncertainty
source spread—disagreement σ across means
peak hour—local · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend unknownC. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
100 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 100 snapshots; drift from 23.8C to 24.4C (+0.6C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤16Clowest temperature in hong kong on may 1 2026 16corbelow—0.9%—≤19Chighest temperature in hong kong on may 1 2026 19corbelow—0.1%—17Clowest temperature in hong kong on may 1 2026 17c—0.8%—18Clowest temperature in hong kong on may 1 2026 18c—0.9%—19Clowest temperature in hong kong on may 1 2026 19c—0.8%—20Cyoulowest temperature in hong kong on may 1 2026 20c—0.5%—20Chighest temperature in hong kong on may 1 2026 20c—0.1%—21Clowest temperature in hong kong on may 1 2026 21c—5.9%—21Chighest temperature in hong kong on may 1 2026 21c—0.1%—22Clowest temperature in hong kong on may 1 2026 22c—98.7%—22Chighest temperature in hong kong on may 1 2026 22c—0.1%—23Clowest temperature in hong kong on may 1 2026 23c—0.2%—23Chighest temperature in hong kong on may 1 2026 23c—0.1%—24Clowest temperature in hong kong on may 1 2026 24c—0.2%—24Chighest temperature in hong kong on may 1 2026 24c—0.2%—25Clowest temperature in hong kong on may 1 2026 25c—0.2%—25Chighest temperature in hong kong on may 1 2026 25c—0.3%—≥26Clowest temperature in hong kong on may 1 2026 26corhigher—0.2%—26Chighest temperature in hong kong on may 1 2026 26c—99.6%—27Chighest temperature in hong kong on may 1 2026 27c—0.7%—28Chighest temperature in hong kong on may 1 2026 28c—0.1%—≥29Chighest temperature in hong kong on may 1 2026 29corhigher—0.1%—