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Market inspector · chengdu · 2026-05-02
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on May 2?
μ blend22.05C104 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.32combined uncertainty
source spread±1.43Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour17:00 ±1.0hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 22.049C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
94 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 94 snapshots; drift from 22.3C to 19.8C (-2.5C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤17Chighest temperature in chengdu on may 2 2026 17corbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp18Chighest temperature in chengdu on may 2 2026 18c0.9%0.1%+0.8pp19Chighest temperature in chengdu on may 2 2026 19c5.0%0.1%+4.9pp20Chighest temperature in chengdu on may 2 2026 20c15.3%0.1%+15.2pp21Chighest temperature in chengdu on may 2 2026 21c27.2%0.1%+27.1pp22Chighest temperature in chengdu on may 2 2026 22c27.9%0.1%+27.8pp23Chighest temperature in chengdu on may 2 2026 23c16.6%0.1%+16.5pp24Cyouhighest temperature in chengdu on may 2 2026 24c5.7%0.1%+5.6pp25Chighest temperature in chengdu on may 2 2026 25c1.1%99.9%-98.8pp26Chighest temperature in chengdu on may 2 2026 26c0.1%0.2%-0.1pp≥27Chighest temperature in chengdu on may 2 2026 27corhigher0.0%0.2%-0.2pp