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Market inspector · tokyo · 2026-05-03
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 3?
μ blend23.58C272 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.05combined uncertainty
source spread±1.27Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour15:00 ±1.6hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend 23.582C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
74 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 74 snapshots; drift from 25.6C to 25.6C (-0.0C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤12Clowest temperature in tokyo on may 3 2026 12corbelow0.0%0.9%-0.9pp≤16Chighest temperature in tokyo on may 3 2026 16corbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp13Clowest temperature in tokyo on may 3 2026 13c0.0%0.5%-0.5pp14Clowest temperature in tokyo on may 3 2026 14c0.0%0.2%-0.2pp15Clowest temperature in tokyo on may 3 2026 15c0.0%1.0%-1.0pp16Clowest temperature in tokyo on may 3 2026 16c0.0%12.0%-12.0pp17Clowest temperature in tokyo on may 3 2026 17c0.0%93.0%-93.0pp17Chighest temperature in tokyo on may 3 2026 17c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp18Clowest temperature in tokyo on may 3 2026 18c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp18Chighest temperature in tokyo on may 3 2026 18c0.0%0.2%-0.2pp19Clowest temperature in tokyo on may 3 2026 19c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp19Chighest temperature in tokyo on may 3 2026 19c0.0%0.4%-0.4pp20Clowest temperature in tokyo on may 3 2026 20c0.7%0.1%+0.6pp20Chighest temperature in tokyo on may 3 2026 20c0.7%0.4%+0.3pp21Clowest temperature in tokyo on may 3 2026 21c5.9%0.1%+5.9pp21Cyouhighest temperature in tokyo on may 3 2026 21c5.9%1.2%+4.8pp≥22Clowest temperature in tokyo on may 3 2026 22corhigher93.3%0.1%+93.2pp22Chighest temperature in tokyo on may 3 2026 22c22.4%16.0%+6.4pp23Chighest temperature in tokyo on may 3 2026 23c36.4%54.0%-17.6pp24Chighest temperature in tokyo on may 3 2026 24c25.7%26.0%-0.3pp25Chighest temperature in tokyo on may 3 2026 25c7.8%8.0%-0.2pp≥26Chighest temperature in tokyo on may 3 2026 26corhigher1.1%2.9%-1.8pp