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Market inspector · tokyo · 2026-05-03
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C or below on May 3?
μ blend23.59C288 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.05combined uncertainty
source spread±1.27Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour15:00 ±1.6hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend 23.593C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
76 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 76 snapshots; drift from 25.6C to 25.6C (-0.0C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤12Clowest temperature in tokyo on may 3 2026 12corbelow0.0%0.9%-0.9pp≤16Cyouhighest temperature in tokyo on may 3 2026 16corbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp13Clowest temperature in tokyo on may 3 2026 13c0.0%0.9%-0.9pp14Clowest temperature in tokyo on may 3 2026 14c0.0%0.2%-0.2pp15Clowest temperature in tokyo on may 3 2026 15c0.0%1.0%-1.0pp16Clowest temperature in tokyo on may 3 2026 16c0.0%6.0%-6.0pp17Clowest temperature in tokyo on may 3 2026 17c0.0%95.4%-95.4pp17Chighest temperature in tokyo on may 3 2026 17c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp18Clowest temperature in tokyo on may 3 2026 18c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp18Chighest temperature in tokyo on may 3 2026 18c0.0%0.3%-0.3pp19Clowest temperature in tokyo on may 3 2026 19c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp19Chighest temperature in tokyo on may 3 2026 19c0.0%0.2%-0.2pp20Clowest temperature in tokyo on may 3 2026 20c0.6%0.1%+0.5pp20Chighest temperature in tokyo on may 3 2026 20c0.6%0.5%+0.1pp21Clowest temperature in tokyo on may 3 2026 21c5.8%0.1%+5.7pp21Chighest temperature in tokyo on may 3 2026 21c5.8%1.2%+4.6pp≥22Clowest temperature in tokyo on may 3 2026 22corhigher93.6%0.1%+93.5pp22Chighest temperature in tokyo on may 3 2026 22c22.1%15.0%+7.1pp23Chighest temperature in tokyo on may 3 2026 23c36.5%54.0%-17.5pp24Chighest temperature in tokyo on may 3 2026 24c25.9%29.0%-3.1pp25Chighest temperature in tokyo on may 3 2026 25c7.9%5.0%+2.9pp≥26Chighest temperature in tokyo on may 3 2026 26corhigher1.1%3.9%-2.8pp