00
OVERVIEW
· all generations · single screen · live22:07CEST
live
Market inspector · wellington · 2026-05-04
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 4?
μ blend15.09C162 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend0.58combined uncertainty
source spread±0.29Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour14:00 ±2.5hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 15.086C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
26 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 26 snapshots; drift from 15.1C to 15.1C (+0.0C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤10Chighest temperature in wellington on may 4 2026 10corbelow0.0%0.2%-0.2pp11Chighest temperature in wellington on may 4 2026 11c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp12Chighest temperature in wellington on may 4 2026 12c0.0%1.0%-1.0pp13Chighest temperature in wellington on may 4 2026 13c3.0%0.9%+2.1pp14Chighest temperature in wellington on may 4 2026 14c41.1%3.2%+37.9pp15Cyouhighest temperature in wellington on may 4 2026 15c50.2%20.0%+30.2pp16Chighest temperature in wellington on may 4 2026 16c5.6%44.0%-38.4pp17Chighest temperature in wellington on may 4 2026 17c0.1%29.0%-28.9pp18Chighest temperature in wellington on may 4 2026 18c0.0%8.0%-8.0pp19Chighest temperature in wellington on may 4 2026 19c0.0%1.4%-1.4pp≥20Chighest temperature in wellington on may 4 2026 20corhigher0.0%0.5%-0.5pp