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Market inspector · wellington · 2026-05-04
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on May 4?
μ blend15.06C182 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend0.61combined uncertainty
source spread±0.32Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour14:00 ±2.5hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 15.058C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
28 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 28 snapshots; drift from 15.1C to 15.1C (+0.0C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤10Chighest temperature in wellington on may 4 2026 10corbelow0.0%0.2%-0.2pp11Chighest temperature in wellington on may 4 2026 11c0.0%0.1%-0.1pp12Chighest temperature in wellington on may 4 2026 12c0.0%0.9%-0.9pp13Chighest temperature in wellington on may 4 2026 13c4.0%0.9%+3.1pp14Chighest temperature in wellington on may 4 2026 14c42.1%3.1%+39.0pp15Chighest temperature in wellington on may 4 2026 15c47.8%20.0%+27.8pp16Chighest temperature in wellington on may 4 2026 16c6.0%44.0%-38.0pp17Chighest temperature in wellington on may 4 2026 17c0.1%28.0%-27.9pp18Chighest temperature in wellington on may 4 2026 18c0.0%8.0%-8.0pp19Cyouhighest temperature in wellington on may 4 2026 19c0.0%1.4%-1.4pp≥20Chighest temperature in wellington on may 4 2026 20corhigher0.0%0.5%-0.5pp