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Market inspector · paris · 2026-05-03
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on May 3?
μ blend18.33C288 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.03combined uncertainty
source spread±0.83Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour17:00 ±7.7hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend 18.334C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
79 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 79 snapshots; drift from 19.3C to 19.4C (+0.1C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤8Clowest temperature in paris on may 3 2026 8corbelow0.0%0.5%-0.5pp≤13Chighest temperature in paris on may 3 2026 13corbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp9Clowest temperature in paris on may 3 2026 9c0.0%0.8%-0.8pp10Clowest temperature in paris on may 3 2026 10c0.0%0.9%-0.9pp11Clowest temperature in paris on may 3 2026 11c0.0%7.5%-7.5pp12Cyoulowest temperature in paris on may 3 2026 12c0.0%48.0%-48.0pp13Clowest temperature in paris on may 3 2026 13c0.0%47.0%-47.0pp14Clowest temperature in paris on may 3 2026 14c0.1%50.0%-49.9pp14Chighest temperature in paris on may 3 2026 14c0.1%0.1%-0.0pp15Clowest temperature in paris on may 3 2026 15c1.1%33.0%-31.9pp15Chighest temperature in paris on may 3 2026 15c1.1%0.1%+1.0pp16Clowest temperature in paris on may 3 2026 16c8.6%1.1%+7.5pp16Chighest temperature in paris on may 3 2026 16c8.6%0.1%+8.5pp17Clowest temperature in paris on may 3 2026 17c27.5%0.6%+26.9pp17Chighest temperature in paris on may 3 2026 17c27.5%0.1%+27.4pp≥18Clowest temperature in paris on may 3 2026 18corhigher62.7%1.0%+61.7pp18Chighest temperature in paris on may 3 2026 18c36.7%14.0%+22.7pp19Chighest temperature in paris on may 3 2026 19c20.6%38.0%-17.4pp20Chighest temperature in paris on may 3 2026 20c4.9%47.0%-42.1pp21Chighest temperature in paris on may 3 2026 21c0.5%5.9%-5.4pp22Chighest temperature in paris on may 3 2026 22c0.0%1.6%-1.6pp≥23Chighest temperature in paris on may 3 2026 23corhigher0.0%1.9%-1.9pp