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Market inspector · paris · 2026-05-03
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 3?
μ blend18.33C276 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.03combined uncertainty
source spread±0.83Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour17:00 ±7.7hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend 18.33C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
77 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 77 snapshots; drift from 19.3C to 19.4C (+0.1C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤8Clowest temperature in paris on may 3 2026 8corbelow0.0%0.5%-0.5pp≤13Chighest temperature in paris on may 3 2026 13corbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp9Clowest temperature in paris on may 3 2026 9c0.0%0.8%-0.8pp10Clowest temperature in paris on may 3 2026 10c0.0%1.2%-1.2pp11Clowest temperature in paris on may 3 2026 11c0.0%7.6%-7.6pp12Clowest temperature in paris on may 3 2026 12c0.0%10.9%-10.9pp13Clowest temperature in paris on may 3 2026 13c0.0%50.0%-50.0pp14Clowest temperature in paris on may 3 2026 14c0.1%50.0%-49.9pp14Chighest temperature in paris on may 3 2026 14c0.1%0.2%-0.1pp15Clowest temperature in paris on may 3 2026 15c1.1%34.0%-32.9pp15Chighest temperature in paris on may 3 2026 15c1.1%0.3%+0.9pp16Clowest temperature in paris on may 3 2026 16c8.7%1.1%+7.6pp16Chighest temperature in paris on may 3 2026 16c8.7%0.5%+8.2pp17Clowest temperature in paris on may 3 2026 17c27.6%0.6%+27.0pp17Chighest temperature in paris on may 3 2026 17c27.6%1.9%+25.7pp≥18Clowest temperature in paris on may 3 2026 18corhigher62.5%0.6%+61.9pp18Chighest temperature in paris on may 3 2026 18c36.7%10.0%+26.7pp19Chighest temperature in paris on may 3 2026 19c20.5%38.0%-17.5pp20Chighest temperature in paris on may 3 2026 20c4.8%47.0%-42.2pp21Cyouhighest temperature in paris on may 3 2026 21c0.5%8.0%-7.5pp22Chighest temperature in paris on may 3 2026 22c0.0%3.0%-3.0pp≥23Chighest temperature in paris on may 3 2026 23corhigher0.0%1.9%-1.9pp