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Market inspector · milan · 2026-05-03
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on May 3?
μ blend22.17C296 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.40combined uncertainty
source spread±2.08Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour15:00 ±0.6hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 22.17C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
75 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 75 snapshots; drift from 22.0C to 22.7C (+0.7C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤17Chighest temperature in milan on may 3 2026 17corbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp18Chighest temperature in milan on may 3 2026 18c1.0%0.3%+0.7pp19Chighest temperature in milan on may 3 2026 19c4.9%0.5%+4.4pp20Chighest temperature in milan on may 3 2026 20c14.1%0.4%+13.7pp21Chighest temperature in milan on may 3 2026 21c25.0%0.3%+24.7pp22Chighest temperature in milan on may 3 2026 22c27.2%4.0%+23.2pp23Chighest temperature in milan on may 3 2026 23c18.1%25.0%-6.9pp24Chighest temperature in milan on may 3 2026 24c7.4%62.0%-54.6pp25Cyouhighest temperature in milan on may 3 2026 25c1.9%17.0%-15.1pp26Chighest temperature in milan on may 3 2026 26c0.3%1.0%-0.7pp≥27Chighest temperature in milan on may 3 2026 27corhigher0.0%1.0%-1.0pp