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Market inspector · milan · 2026-05-03
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 3?
μ blend22.14C280 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.37combined uncertainty
source spread±2.13Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour15:00 ±0.6hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 22.141C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
73 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 73 snapshots; drift from 22.0C to 22.7C (+0.7C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤17Chighest temperature in milan on may 3 2026 17corbelow0.0%0.2%-0.2pp18Chighest temperature in milan on may 3 2026 18c1.0%0.3%+0.7pp19Chighest temperature in milan on may 3 2026 19c4.8%0.3%+4.5pp20Chighest temperature in milan on may 3 2026 20c14.3%0.4%+13.9pp21Chighest temperature in milan on may 3 2026 21c25.7%0.4%+25.3pp22Cyouhighest temperature in milan on may 3 2026 22c27.6%5.0%+22.6pp23Chighest temperature in milan on may 3 2026 23c17.8%25.0%-7.2pp24Chighest temperature in milan on may 3 2026 24c6.9%60.0%-53.1pp25Chighest temperature in milan on may 3 2026 25c1.6%18.0%-16.4pp26Chighest temperature in milan on may 3 2026 26c0.2%1.0%-0.8pp≥27Chighest temperature in milan on may 3 2026 27corhigher0.0%0.9%-0.9pp