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Market inspector · lagos · 2026-05-04
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 36°C on May 4?
μ blend32.48C205 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend0.87combined uncertainty
source spread±1.37Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour13:00 ±3.5hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 32.476C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
29 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 29 snapshots; drift from 33.4C to 33.9C (+0.5C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤28Chighest temperature in lagos on may 4 2026 28corbelow0.0%3.7%-3.7pp29Chighest temperature in lagos on may 4 2026 29c0.2%4.1%-3.9pp30Chighest temperature in lagos on may 4 2026 30c4.2%4.1%+0.1pp31Chighest temperature in lagos on may 4 2026 31c24.7%9.0%+15.7pp32Chighest temperature in lagos on may 4 2026 32c43.5%16.0%+27.5pp33Chighest temperature in lagos on may 4 2026 33c23.3%20.0%+3.3pp34Chighest temperature in lagos on may 4 2026 34c3.8%36.0%-32.2pp35Chighest temperature in lagos on may 4 2026 35c0.2%13.0%-12.8pp36Cyouhighest temperature in lagos on may 4 2026 36c0.0%4.5%-4.5pp37Chighest temperature in lagos on may 4 2026 37c0.0%4.5%-4.5pp≥38Chighest temperature in lagos on may 4 2026 38corhigher0.0%2.4%-2.4pp