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Market inspector · lagos · 2026-05-04
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 31°C on May 4?
μ blend32.53C189 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend0.87combined uncertainty
source spread±1.29Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour13:00 ±3.5hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 32.526C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
27 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 27 snapshots; drift from 33.4C to 33.9C (+0.5C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤28Chighest temperature in lagos on may 4 2026 28corbelow0.0%3.0%-3.0pp29Chighest temperature in lagos on may 4 2026 29c0.2%6.6%-6.4pp30Chighest temperature in lagos on may 4 2026 30c3.8%5.1%-1.3pp31Cyouhighest temperature in lagos on may 4 2026 31c23.3%12.0%+11.3pp32Chighest temperature in lagos on may 4 2026 32c43.4%18.0%+25.4pp33Chighest temperature in lagos on may 4 2026 33c24.8%22.0%+2.8pp34Chighest temperature in lagos on may 4 2026 34c4.3%38.0%-33.7pp35Chighest temperature in lagos on may 4 2026 35c0.2%18.0%-17.8pp36Chighest temperature in lagos on may 4 2026 36c0.0%6.2%-6.2pp37Chighest temperature in lagos on may 4 2026 37c0.0%3.6%-3.6pp≥38Chighest temperature in lagos on may 4 2026 38corhigher0.0%3.7%-3.7pp