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Market inspector · madrid · 2026-05-04
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C or higher on May 4?
μ blend18.86C188 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend0.89combined uncertainty
source spread±1.60Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour16:00 ±2.7hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 18.863C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
30 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 30 snapshots; drift from 19.3C to 18.7C (-0.6C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤15Chighest temperature in madrid on may 4 2026 15corbelow0.0%0.3%-0.3pp16Chighest temperature in madrid on may 4 2026 16c1.8%0.6%+1.2pp17Chighest temperature in madrid on may 4 2026 17c14.8%2.0%+12.8pp18Chighest temperature in madrid on may 4 2026 18c39.4%4.9%+34.5pp19Chighest temperature in madrid on may 4 2026 19c33.8%22.0%+11.8pp20Chighest temperature in madrid on may 4 2026 20c9.3%41.0%-31.7pp21Chighest temperature in madrid on may 4 2026 21c0.8%29.0%-28.2pp22Chighest temperature in madrid on may 4 2026 22c0.0%9.0%-9.0pp23Chighest temperature in madrid on may 4 2026 23c0.0%4.0%-4.0pp24Chighest temperature in madrid on may 4 2026 24c0.0%1.5%-1.5pp≥25Cyouhighest temperature in madrid on may 4 2026 25corhigher0.0%1.0%-1.0pp