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Market inspector · madrid · 2026-05-04
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 4?
μ blend19.09C164 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend0.90combined uncertainty
source spread±1.20Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour16:00 ±2.7hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 19.085C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
27 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 27 snapshots; drift from 19.3C to 18.7C (-0.6C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤15Chighest temperature in madrid on may 4 2026 15corbelow0.0%0.3%-0.3pp16Chighest temperature in madrid on may 4 2026 16c1.0%0.6%+0.4pp17Chighest temperature in madrid on may 4 2026 17c10.3%2.8%+7.5pp18Cyouhighest temperature in madrid on may 4 2026 18c34.9%4.9%+30.0pp19Chighest temperature in madrid on may 4 2026 19c38.4%22.0%+16.4pp20Chighest temperature in madrid on may 4 2026 20c13.7%40.0%-26.3pp21Chighest temperature in madrid on may 4 2026 21c1.6%28.0%-26.4pp22Chighest temperature in madrid on may 4 2026 22c0.1%9.0%-8.9pp23Chighest temperature in madrid on may 4 2026 23c0.0%4.9%-4.9pp24Chighest temperature in madrid on may 4 2026 24c0.0%1.5%-1.5pp≥25Chighest temperature in madrid on may 4 2026 25corhigher0.0%1.0%-1.0pp