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Market inspector · jakarta · 2026-05-03
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 29°C on May 3?
μ blend31.67C295 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend0.92combined uncertainty
source spread±0.60Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour13:00 ±1.7hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 31.672C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
74 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 74 snapshots; drift from 32.1C to 32.7C (+0.6C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤28Chighest temperature in jakarta on may 3 2026 28corbelow0.0%0.5%-0.5pp29Cyouhighest temperature in jakarta on may 3 2026 29c3.3%0.6%+2.7pp30Chighest temperature in jakarta on may 3 2026 30c19.8%1.5%+18.3pp31Chighest temperature in jakarta on may 3 2026 31c40.7%4.5%+36.2pp32Chighest temperature in jakarta on may 3 2026 32c28.6%23.0%+5.6pp33Chighest temperature in jakarta on may 3 2026 33c6.9%30.0%-23.1pp34Chighest temperature in jakarta on may 3 2026 34c0.5%34.0%-33.5pp35Chighest temperature in jakarta on may 3 2026 35c0.0%9.9%-9.9pp36Chighest temperature in jakarta on may 3 2026 36c0.0%1.0%-1.0pp37Chighest temperature in jakarta on may 3 2026 37c0.0%0.8%-0.8pp≥38Chighest temperature in jakarta on may 3 2026 38corhigher0.0%0.5%-0.5pp