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Market inspector · jakarta · 2026-05-03
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 3?
μ blend31.66C280 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend0.92combined uncertainty
source spread±0.60Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour13:00 ±1.7hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 31.657C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
71 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 71 snapshots; drift from 32.1C to 32.7C (+0.6C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤28Chighest temperature in jakarta on may 3 2026 28corbelow0.0%0.4%-0.4pp29Chighest temperature in jakarta on may 3 2026 29c3.3%0.3%+3.0pp30Chighest temperature in jakarta on may 3 2026 30c20.1%1.2%+18.9pp31Chighest temperature in jakarta on may 3 2026 31c41.0%11.0%+30.0pp32Chighest temperature in jakarta on may 3 2026 32c28.3%22.0%+6.3pp33Chighest temperature in jakarta on may 3 2026 33c6.6%31.0%-24.4pp34Chighest temperature in jakarta on may 3 2026 34c0.5%36.0%-35.5pp35Cyouhighest temperature in jakarta on may 3 2026 35c0.0%9.8%-9.8pp36Chighest temperature in jakarta on may 3 2026 36c0.0%1.0%-1.0pp37Chighest temperature in jakarta on may 3 2026 37c0.0%0.9%-0.9pp≥38Chighest temperature in jakarta on may 3 2026 38corhigher0.0%0.4%-0.4pp