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Market inspector · amsterdam · 2026-05-04
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on May 4?
μ blend15.42C158 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.41combined uncertainty
source spread±1.07Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour14:00 ±5.5hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 15.422C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
27 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 27 snapshots; drift from 16.6C to 16.6C (-0.1C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤12Chighest temperature in amsterdam on may 4 2026 12corbelow0.8%0.2%+0.6pp13Chighest temperature in amsterdam on may 4 2026 13c11.4%0.1%+11.3pp14Chighest temperature in amsterdam on may 4 2026 14c22.6%1.7%+20.9pp15Chighest temperature in amsterdam on may 4 2026 15c27.6%20.0%+7.6pp16Chighest temperature in amsterdam on may 4 2026 16c20.9%37.0%-16.1pp17Chighest temperature in amsterdam on may 4 2026 17c9.8%41.0%-31.2pp18Cyouhighest temperature in amsterdam on may 4 2026 18c2.8%12.0%-9.2pp19Chighest temperature in amsterdam on may 4 2026 19c0.5%1.4%-0.9pp20Chighest temperature in amsterdam on may 4 2026 20c0.1%1.0%-0.9pp21Chighest temperature in amsterdam on may 4 2026 21c0.0%0.4%-0.4pp≥22Chighest temperature in amsterdam on may 4 2026 22corhigher0.0%0.2%-0.2pp