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Market inspector · amsterdam · 2026-05-04
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C or higher on May 4?
μ blend15.35C182 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.40combined uncertainty
source spread±1.19Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour14:00 ±5.5hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 15.346C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
29 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 29 snapshots; drift from 16.6C to 16.6C (-0.1C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤12Chighest temperature in amsterdam on may 4 2026 12corbelow0.8%0.2%+0.6pp13Chighest temperature in amsterdam on may 4 2026 13c12.1%0.1%+12.0pp14Chighest temperature in amsterdam on may 4 2026 14c23.4%1.6%+21.9pp15Chighest temperature in amsterdam on may 4 2026 15c27.8%20.0%+7.8pp16Chighest temperature in amsterdam on may 4 2026 16c20.2%35.0%-14.8pp17Chighest temperature in amsterdam on may 4 2026 17c8.9%39.0%-30.0pp18Chighest temperature in amsterdam on may 4 2026 18c2.4%12.0%-9.6pp19Chighest temperature in amsterdam on may 4 2026 19c0.4%3.0%-2.6pp20Chighest temperature in amsterdam on may 4 2026 20c0.0%1.4%-1.4pp21Chighest temperature in amsterdam on may 4 2026 21c0.0%0.4%-0.4pp≥22Cyouhighest temperature in amsterdam on may 4 2026 22corhigher0.0%0.2%-0.2pp