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Market inspector · shanghai · 2026-05-03
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 3?
μ blend22.17C272 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.15combined uncertainty
source spread±0.66Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour14:00 ±3.4hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend 22.166C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
75 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 75 snapshots; drift from 21.3C to 22.9C (+1.6C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤11Clowest temperature in shanghai on may 3 2026 11corbelow0.0%0.2%-0.2pp≤17Chighest temperature in shanghai on may 3 2026 17corbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp12Clowest temperature in shanghai on may 3 2026 12c0.0%4.2%-4.2pp13Clowest temperature in shanghai on may 3 2026 13c0.0%5.9%-5.9pp14Clowest temperature in shanghai on may 3 2026 14c0.0%45.0%-45.0pp15Clowest temperature in shanghai on may 3 2026 15c0.0%45.0%-45.0pp16Clowest temperature in shanghai on may 3 2026 16c0.0%31.0%-31.0pp17Clowest temperature in shanghai on may 3 2026 17c0.0%30.0%-30.0pp18Clowest temperature in shanghai on may 3 2026 18c0.3%14.0%-13.7pp18Chighest temperature in shanghai on may 3 2026 18c0.3%0.1%+0.2pp19Clowest temperature in shanghai on may 3 2026 19c2.7%0.1%+2.6pp19Chighest temperature in shanghai on may 3 2026 19c2.7%0.1%+2.6pp20Clowest temperature in shanghai on may 3 2026 20c12.5%0.1%+12.4pp20Chighest temperature in shanghai on may 3 2026 20c12.5%2.0%+10.5pp≥21Clowest temperature in shanghai on may 3 2026 21corhigher84.5%0.1%+84.4pp21Chighest temperature in shanghai on may 3 2026 21c28.7%13.0%+15.7pp22Chighest temperature in shanghai on may 3 2026 22c32.3%39.0%-6.7pp23Cyouhighest temperature in shanghai on may 3 2026 23c17.9%45.0%-27.1pp24Chighest temperature in shanghai on may 3 2026 24c4.8%7.8%-3.0pp25Chighest temperature in shanghai on may 3 2026 25c0.6%1.4%-0.8pp26Chighest temperature in shanghai on may 3 2026 26c0.0%0.6%-0.6pp≥27Chighest temperature in shanghai on may 3 2026 27corhigher0.0%0.4%-0.4pp