00
OVERVIEW
· all generations · single screen · live00:54CEST
live
Market inspector · shanghai · 2026-05-03
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on May 3?
μ blend22.16C288 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.14combined uncertainty
source spread±0.66Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour14:00 ±3.4hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend 22.165C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
77 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 77 snapshots; drift from 21.3C to 22.9C (+1.6C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤11Clowest temperature in shanghai on may 3 2026 11corbelow0.0%0.2%-0.2pp≤17Chighest temperature in shanghai on may 3 2026 17corbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp12Clowest temperature in shanghai on may 3 2026 12c0.0%4.2%-4.2pp13Clowest temperature in shanghai on may 3 2026 13c0.0%5.9%-5.9pp14Clowest temperature in shanghai on may 3 2026 14c0.0%28.0%-28.0pp15Clowest temperature in shanghai on may 3 2026 15c0.0%49.0%-49.0pp16Clowest temperature in shanghai on may 3 2026 16c0.0%29.0%-29.0pp17Clowest temperature in shanghai on may 3 2026 17c0.0%28.0%-28.0pp18Clowest temperature in shanghai on may 3 2026 18c0.3%0.1%+0.2pp18Chighest temperature in shanghai on may 3 2026 18c0.3%0.1%+0.2pp19Clowest temperature in shanghai on may 3 2026 19c2.6%0.1%+2.5pp19Chighest temperature in shanghai on may 3 2026 19c2.6%0.1%+2.5pp20Clowest temperature in shanghai on may 3 2026 20c12.5%0.1%+12.4pp20Cyouhighest temperature in shanghai on may 3 2026 20c12.5%2.3%+10.2pp≥21Clowest temperature in shanghai on may 3 2026 21corhigher84.6%0.1%+84.5pp21Chighest temperature in shanghai on may 3 2026 21c28.9%10.0%+18.9pp22Chighest temperature in shanghai on may 3 2026 22c32.5%41.0%-8.5pp23Chighest temperature in shanghai on may 3 2026 23c17.8%44.0%-26.2pp24Chighest temperature in shanghai on may 3 2026 24c4.8%6.0%-1.3pp25Chighest temperature in shanghai on may 3 2026 25c0.6%1.3%-0.7pp26Chighest temperature in shanghai on may 3 2026 26c0.0%0.8%-0.8pp≥27Chighest temperature in shanghai on may 3 2026 27corhigher0.0%0.4%-0.4pp