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Market inspector · london · 2026-05-03
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 3?
μ blend18.41C296 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.22combined uncertainty
source spread±1.16Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour14:00 ±2.5hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend 18.414C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
77 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 77 snapshots; drift from 18.9C to 19.7C (+0.8C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤14Chighest temperature in london on may 3 2026 14corbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp≤7Clowest temperature in london on may 3 2026 7corbelow0.0%0.4%-0.4pp8Clowest temperature in london on may 3 2026 8c0.0%0.7%-0.7pp9Clowest temperature in london on may 3 2026 9c0.0%0.2%-0.2pp10Clowest temperature in london on may 3 2026 10c0.0%0.9%-0.9pp11Clowest temperature in london on may 3 2026 11c0.0%48.7%-48.7pp12Clowest temperature in london on may 3 2026 12c0.0%23.0%-23.0pp13Clowest temperature in london on may 3 2026 13c0.0%30.0%-30.0pp14Clowest temperature in london on may 3 2026 14c0.2%47.0%-46.8pp15Chighest temperature in london on may 3 2026 15c2.1%0.1%+2.0pp15Clowest temperature in london on may 3 2026 15c2.1%6.6%-4.5pp16Chighest temperature in london on may 3 2026 16c9.9%0.2%+9.7pp16Clowest temperature in london on may 3 2026 16c9.9%0.9%+9.0pp17Chighest temperature in london on may 3 2026 17c24.4%1.6%+22.8pp≥17Clowest temperature in london on may 3 2026 17corhigher87.7%0.1%+87.6pp18Chighest temperature in london on may 3 2026 18c31.8%10.0%+21.8pp19Chighest temperature in london on may 3 2026 19c21.9%40.0%-18.1pp20Chighest temperature in london on may 3 2026 20c8.0%40.0%-32.0pp21Chighest temperature in london on may 3 2026 21c1.5%11.0%-9.5pp22Cyouhighest temperature in london on may 3 2026 22c0.2%2.9%-2.7pp23Chighest temperature in london on may 3 2026 23c0.0%1.0%-1.0pp≥24Chighest temperature in london on may 3 2026 24corhigher0.0%0.2%-0.2pp