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Market inspector · london · 2026-05-03
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 3?
μ blend18.39C284 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.22combined uncertainty
source spread±1.17Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour14:00 ±2.5hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend 18.389C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
75 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 75 snapshots; drift from 18.9C to 19.7C (+0.8C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤14Chighest temperature in london on may 3 2026 14corbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp≤7Clowest temperature in london on may 3 2026 7corbelow0.0%0.4%-0.4pp8Clowest temperature in london on may 3 2026 8c0.0%0.7%-0.7pp9Clowest temperature in london on may 3 2026 9c0.0%0.2%-0.2pp10Clowest temperature in london on may 3 2026 10c0.0%0.8%-0.8pp11Clowest temperature in london on may 3 2026 11c0.0%7.0%-7.0pp12Clowest temperature in london on may 3 2026 12c0.0%23.0%-23.0pp13Clowest temperature in london on may 3 2026 13c0.0%30.0%-30.0pp14Clowest temperature in london on may 3 2026 14c0.3%48.0%-47.8pp15Chighest temperature in london on may 3 2026 15c2.2%0.1%+2.1pp15Clowest temperature in london on may 3 2026 15c2.2%7.5%-5.3pp16Chighest temperature in london on may 3 2026 16c10.2%0.2%+10.0pp16Clowest temperature in london on may 3 2026 16c10.2%0.9%+9.3pp17Chighest temperature in london on may 3 2026 17c24.8%1.6%+23.2pp≥17Clowest temperature in london on may 3 2026 17corhigher87.3%0.3%+87.0pp18Chighest temperature in london on may 3 2026 18c31.8%11.0%+20.8pp19Chighest temperature in london on may 3 2026 19c21.5%40.0%-18.5pp20Chighest temperature in london on may 3 2026 20c7.7%39.0%-31.3pp21Cyouhighest temperature in london on may 3 2026 21c1.5%10.9%-9.4pp22Chighest temperature in london on may 3 2026 22c0.1%4.0%-3.9pp23Chighest temperature in london on may 3 2026 23c0.0%1.0%-1.0pp≥24Chighest temperature in london on may 3 2026 24corhigher0.0%0.2%-0.2pp