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Market inspector · toronto · 2026-05-04
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 4?
μ blend18.46C191 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.06combined uncertainty
source spread±2.98Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour16:00 ±0.9hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 18.459C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
29 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 29 snapshots; drift from 17.8C to 17.9C (+0.1C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤13Chighest temperature in toronto on may 4 2026 13corbelow0.0%0.2%-0.2pp14Cyouhighest temperature in toronto on may 4 2026 14c0.1%0.4%-0.3pp15Chighest temperature in toronto on may 4 2026 15c1.0%1.0%-0.0pp16Chighest temperature in toronto on may 4 2026 16c7.5%0.9%+6.6pp17Chighest temperature in toronto on may 4 2026 17c24.8%7.0%+17.8pp18Chighest temperature in toronto on may 4 2026 18c36.1%15.0%+21.1pp19Chighest temperature in toronto on may 4 2026 19c23.2%27.0%-3.8pp20Chighest temperature in toronto on may 4 2026 20c6.5%23.0%-16.5pp21Chighest temperature in toronto on may 4 2026 21c0.8%18.0%-17.2pp22Chighest temperature in toronto on may 4 2026 22c0.0%16.9%-16.9pp≥23Chighest temperature in toronto on may 4 2026 23corhigher0.0%12.1%-12.1pp