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Market inspector · toronto · 2026-05-04
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on May 4?
μ blend18.69C163 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.06combined uncertainty
source spread±2.58Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour16:00 ±0.9hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 18.694C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
27 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 27 snapshots; drift from 17.8C to 17.9C (+0.1C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤13Chighest temperature in toronto on may 4 2026 13corbelow0.0%0.2%-0.2pp14Chighest temperature in toronto on may 4 2026 14c0.0%0.4%-0.4pp15Chighest temperature in toronto on may 4 2026 15c0.5%1.9%-1.4pp16Chighest temperature in toronto on may 4 2026 16c5.0%0.8%+4.2pp17Chighest temperature in toronto on may 4 2026 17c20.1%9.0%+11.1pp18Chighest temperature in toronto on may 4 2026 18c35.6%17.0%+18.6pp19Chighest temperature in toronto on may 4 2026 19c27.7%22.0%+5.7pp20Chighest temperature in toronto on may 4 2026 20c9.5%22.0%-12.5pp21Cyouhighest temperature in toronto on may 4 2026 21c1.4%17.0%-15.6pp22Chighest temperature in toronto on may 4 2026 22c0.1%13.0%-12.9pp≥23Chighest temperature in toronto on may 4 2026 23corhigher0.0%10.1%-10.1pp