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Market inspector · singapore · 2026-05-04
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 4?
μ blend31.06C204 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.00combined uncertainty
source spread±0.94Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour14:00 ±1.9hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 31.058C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
31 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 31 snapshots; drift from 31.8C to 31.4C (-0.4C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤25Chighest temperature in singapore on may 4 2026 25corbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp26Chighest temperature in singapore on may 4 2026 26c0.0%0.2%-0.2pp27Chighest temperature in singapore on may 4 2026 27c0.1%0.2%-0.1pp28Chighest temperature in singapore on may 4 2026 28c1.8%0.2%+1.6pp29Chighest temperature in singapore on may 4 2026 29c12.5%0.6%+11.9pp30Chighest temperature in singapore on may 4 2026 30c33.3%6.0%+27.3pp31Chighest temperature in singapore on may 4 2026 31c35.1%21.0%+14.1pp32Chighest temperature in singapore on may 4 2026 32c14.7%47.0%-32.3pp33Chighest temperature in singapore on may 4 2026 33c2.4%27.0%-24.6pp34Cyouhighest temperature in singapore on may 4 2026 34c0.1%9.0%-8.8pp≥35Chighest temperature in singapore on may 4 2026 35corhigher0.0%0.8%-0.8pp