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Market inspector · singapore · 2026-05-04
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 4?
μ blend31.08C188 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend0.94combined uncertainty
source spread±0.93Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour14:00 ±1.9hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 31.082C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
28 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 28 snapshots; drift from 31.8C to 31.4C (-0.4C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤25Chighest temperature in singapore on may 4 2026 25corbelow0.0%0.1%-0.1pp26Chighest temperature in singapore on may 4 2026 26c0.0%0.2%-0.2pp27Chighest temperature in singapore on may 4 2026 27c0.1%0.2%-0.1pp28Chighest temperature in singapore on may 4 2026 28c1.3%0.2%+1.1pp29Chighest temperature in singapore on may 4 2026 29c11.1%0.6%+10.5pp30Cyouhighest temperature in singapore on may 4 2026 30c34.1%6.0%+28.1pp31Chighest temperature in singapore on may 4 2026 31c37.2%22.0%+15.2pp32Chighest temperature in singapore on may 4 2026 32c14.3%45.0%-30.7pp33Chighest temperature in singapore on may 4 2026 33c1.9%30.0%-28.1pp34Chighest temperature in singapore on may 4 2026 34c0.1%9.3%-9.2pp≥35Chighest temperature in singapore on may 4 2026 35corhigher0.0%0.8%-0.8pp