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OVERVIEW
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Market inspector · nyc · 2026-05-03
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on May 3?
μ blend59.19F248 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend2.29combined uncertainty
source spread±1.44Fdisagreement σ across means
peak hour17:00 ±1.5hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend 59.186F. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
66 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 66 snapshots; drift from 61.8F to 60.5F (-1.3F).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤35Flowest temperature in nyc on may 3 2026 35forbelow0.0%0.5%-0.5pp≤53Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 3 2026 53forbelow0.4%0.9%-0.5pp36Flowest temperature in nyc on may 3 2026 36 37f0.0%0.7%-0.7pp38Flowest temperature in nyc on may 3 2026 38 39f0.0%1.8%-1.8pp40Flowest temperature in nyc on may 3 2026 40 41f0.0%11.0%-11.0pp42Flowest temperature in nyc on may 3 2026 42 43f0.0%15.0%-15.0pp44Flowest temperature in nyc on may 3 2026 44 45f0.0%12.0%-12.0pp46Flowest temperature in nyc on may 3 2026 46 47f0.0%51.0%-51.0pp48Flowest temperature in nyc on may 3 2026 48 49f0.0%30.0%-30.0pp50Fyoulowest temperature in nyc on may 3 2026 50 51f0.0%1.4%-1.4pp52Flowest temperature in nyc on may 3 2026 52 53f0.3%0.9%-0.6pp≥54Flowest temperature in nyc on may 3 2026 54forhigher98.8%0.7%+98.1pp54Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 3 2026 54 55f2.2%3.9%-1.7pp56Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 3 2026 56 57f8.8%18.0%-9.2pp58Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 3 2026 58 59f16.5%44.0%-27.5pp60Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 3 2026 60 61f14.7%28.0%-13.3pp62Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 3 2026 62 63f6.2%10.0%-3.8pp64Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 3 2026 64 65f1.2%1.9%-0.7pp66Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 3 2026 66 67f0.1%0.8%-0.7pp68Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 3 2026 68 69f0.0%0.3%-0.3pp70Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 3 2026 70 71f0.0%0.3%-0.3pp≥72Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 3 2026 72forhigher0.0%0.2%-0.2pp