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OVERVIEW
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Market inspector · nyc · 2026-05-03
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on May 3?
μ blend59.19F272 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend2.28combined uncertainty
source spread±1.40Fdisagreement σ across means
peak hour17:00 ±1.5hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets22same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 22 buckets shown, μ_blend 59.193F. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
68 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 68 snapshots; drift from 61.8F to 60.5F (-1.3F).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤35Flowest temperature in nyc on may 3 2026 35forbelow0.0%0.2%-0.2pp≤53Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 3 2026 53forbelow0.3%0.4%-0.1pp36Flowest temperature in nyc on may 3 2026 36 37f0.0%0.2%-0.2pp38Flowest temperature in nyc on may 3 2026 38 39f0.0%0.4%-0.4pp40Flowest temperature in nyc on may 3 2026 40 41f0.0%3.9%-3.9pp42Flowest temperature in nyc on may 3 2026 42 43f0.0%15.0%-15.0pp44Flowest temperature in nyc on may 3 2026 44 45f0.0%15.0%-15.0pp46Fyoulowest temperature in nyc on may 3 2026 46 47f0.0%50.0%-50.0pp48Flowest temperature in nyc on may 3 2026 48 49f0.0%17.0%-17.0pp50Flowest temperature in nyc on may 3 2026 50 51f0.0%1.4%-1.4pp52Flowest temperature in nyc on may 3 2026 52 53f0.3%0.9%-0.7pp≥54Flowest temperature in nyc on may 3 2026 54forhigher98.9%0.7%+98.2pp54Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 3 2026 54 55f2.2%2.0%+0.2pp56Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 3 2026 56 57f8.7%18.0%-9.3pp58Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 3 2026 58 59f16.6%46.0%-29.4pp60Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 3 2026 60 61f14.8%30.0%-15.3pp62Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 3 2026 62 63f6.2%7.0%-0.8pp64Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 3 2026 64 65f1.2%1.9%-0.7pp66Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 3 2026 66 67f0.1%0.7%-0.6pp68Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 3 2026 68 69f0.0%0.5%-0.5pp70Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 3 2026 70 71f0.0%0.3%-0.3pp≥72Fhighest temperature in nyc on may 3 2026 72forhigher0.0%0.2%-0.2pp