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Market inspector · chengdu · 2026-05-03
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on May 3?
μ blend22.79C276 forecasts · 12h window
σ blend1.33combined uncertainty
source spread±0.94Cdisagreement σ across means
peak hour15:00 ±0.9hlocal · ensemble timing
buckets11same-event siblings
Overlaid line plot comparing our model's blended probability density against the market's current YES-side ask per bucket. 11 buckets shown, μ_blend 22.792C. Highlighted bucket marks the inspected market.
Ensemble trajectory · last 7d
70 snapshots · open_meteo_ensembleEnsemble forecast trajectory with P10–P90 band. Span 70 snapshots; drift from 25.9C to 23.7C (-2.2C).
Bucket edges · our_p − market_p
positive = we think bucket is underpriced≤19Chighest temperature in chengdu on may 3 2026 19corbelow0.2%0.6%-0.4pp20Chighest temperature in chengdu on may 3 2026 20c7.1%0.4%+6.7pp21Chighest temperature in chengdu on may 3 2026 21c18.7%1.6%+17.1pp22Chighest temperature in chengdu on may 3 2026 22c28.6%12.4%+16.2pp23Chighest temperature in chengdu on may 3 2026 23c25.6%26.0%-0.4pp24Chighest temperature in chengdu on may 3 2026 24c13.4%33.0%-19.7pp25Chighest temperature in chengdu on may 3 2026 25c4.1%17.0%-12.9pp26Cyouhighest temperature in chengdu on may 3 2026 26c0.7%10.0%-9.3pp27Chighest temperature in chengdu on may 3 2026 27c0.1%1.4%-1.3pp28Chighest temperature in chengdu on may 3 2026 28c0.0%0.7%-0.7pp≥29Chighest temperature in chengdu on may 3 2026 29corhigher0.0%0.6%-0.6pp